It's all just as unpredictable as ever it was.

No snow here was as deep as January 1982 for many years- then came February 2009- deeper. Then January 2010. As deep. Then December 2010. Almost as deep. Then January 2013- not as deep, but still better than anything in between. Four events in relatively close succession. Don't tell me that was factored in to the 'no more snow' theorem as predicted exceptions.

 

The general evidence of the last 30 years of winters suggests otherwise -  we are now 21 years since the last md-winter easterly.

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Yes looks in keeping with what indicators are suggesting - strongly zonal with +ve AO/NAO , if we enter a winter these days with such strong indicators - and there is time for change - then usually rainfall/high temp records are broken somewhere in the British Isles.

Oh yes I expect “broken records” this winter. 

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The general evidence of the last 30 years of winters suggests otherwise -  we are now 21 years since the last md-winter easterly.

throughout the last century evidence shows the U.K. has gone through milder, snowless times. The 20’s and 30’s for example are known to have been milder. Then the 50’s. To suggest we’ll never experience cold and snow again is ludicrous. 

throughout the last century evidence shows the U.K. has gone through milder, snowless times. The 20’s and 30’s for example are known to have been milder. Then the 50’s. To suggest we’ll never experience cold and snow again is ludicrous. 

Yes I think the last 30 years may have involved (partly) something similar to what happened in the '20s and '30s. And regarding AGW, it may cause -NAO as much as it can cause +NAO.  Ian Brown's idea that something was broken beyond repair in 1987 is like a Da Vinci Code conspiracy theory, a simplistic black & white narrative that is tempting to believe in, but just not the complex and rational reality. 

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The general evidence of the last 30 years of winters suggests otherwise -  we are now 21 years since the last md-winter easterly.

So recent notable cold or very cold spells such as Feb 2009, winter 2009/10 and December 2010 don't count because they didn't come from an easterly?

More moving of the goalposts here, methinks.

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From the CPF:

Recent research has suggested that a lack of Arctic sea ice in autumn increases the probability of high-pressure patterns over Northern Eurasia. This could result in low pressure near the UK and an increased chance of above-average temperatures.

To me that suggests it is very possible something has changed. I know the comment relates to the autumn months but it points to changes in the global circulation.

 

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So recent notable cold or very cold spells such as Feb 2009, winter 2009/10 and December 2010 don't count because they didn't come from an easterly?

More moving of the goalposts here, methinks.

Not really David, I'm just pointing out a remarkable statistic that Darren (Retron) has provided us with. There are many more incredible numbers from the last 30 year period. Yes we did have a series of cold months around the turn of the decade but even that is 7 years ago now and to all intents and purposes the (new) normal service has been resumed.

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Not really David, I'm just pointing out a remarkable statistic that Darren (Retron) has provided us with. There are many more incredible numbers from the last 30 year period. Yes we did have a series of cold months around the turn of the decade but even that is 7 years ago now and to all intents and purposes the (new) normal service has been resumed.

You are forgetting the cold spells we had in early 2013, especially March, although that is technically a spring month.

All I and others are trying at will to point out to you is that your claims from circa a decade ago that, because of "modern era" factors, sustained spells of winter cold in this country were consigned to history were proved wrong by what happened in 2009 and 2010. In view of that, any rational person out there surely has to conclude that if you are attempting to make the same claim now, there is a chance, no matter how small it may be, that one day you could be proved wrong again. The mistake you make, IMO, is that you make rather a lot of assumptions and that is a highly risky thing to do when it comes to making long-term forecasts with the British weather.

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October looks like effortlessly getting close to the all time high record.  The warming trend in our climate is notable, with date records for warmest ever days being breached at a ratio of 10:1 to cold day records.

My expectations are for stormy weather.  A repetition of last January's cold high and 2 weeks of air frosts is, sadly, a very unlikely scenario, though we live in hope. 

A succession of ice days in a biting east or north easterly is the mirage that keeps this snow-desert wanderer going.

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Another way of looking at it is this:

Since 1970 when I was born there have been 2 very snowy and 5 snowy winters.

Assuming average life expectancy I could possibly expect to see another 1 or 2 very snowy winters and 3 or 4 snowy ones. Now assume the chances have been reduced significantly by changes to the global circulation. Therefore I may see another 1 very snowy and 2 or 3 snowy winters. Either way I won't see many and neither will most people if they remain in the UK (highland areas not counting).

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October looks like effortlessly getting close to the all time high record.  The warming trend in our climate is notable, with date records for warmest ever days being breached at a ratio of 10:1 to cold day records.

My expectations are for stormy weather.  A repetition of last January's cold high and 2 weeks of air frosts is, sadly, a very unlikely scenario, though we live in hope. 

A succession of ice days in a biting east or north easterly is the mirage that keeps this snow-desert wanderer going.

Assuming you're talking about January 2017, I don't recall that month ever being particularly cold. According to the CET list for 2017 thus far that Brian posted earlier in thread, every month this year with the exceptions of August and September, has been above average.

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October looks like effortlessly getting close to the all time high record.  The warming trend in our climate is notable, with date records for warmest ever days being breached at a ratio of 10:1 to cold day records.

My expectations are for stormy weather.  A repetition of last January's cold high and 2 weeks of air frosts is, sadly, a very unlikely scenario, though we live in hope. 

A succession of ice days in a biting east or north easterly is the mirage that keeps this snow-desert wanderer going.

 

Are we now getting back to the scenario of a decade or so ago where the best that could be hoped for is MLB ? Desperately sad. 

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 Now assume the chances have been reduced significantly by changes to the global circulation.

It is possible that changes to the global circulation may have the opposite effect. If global warming simply shifts the average latitude of the winter jet stream northwards in the vicinity of the British Isles then this assumption would be correct, but I am far from convinced that things are so straightforward. We have seen a couple of months recently that in my opinion were truly exceptional: (1) Dec 2010 - second coldest Dec in the CET series going back to 1659 (2) March 2013[I know it is not strictly speaking winter] - equal 12th coldest in CET series and with a negative AO that was off the normal scale.

 

 

Are we now getting back to the scenario of a decade or so ago where the best that could be hoped for is MLB ? Desperately sad. 

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I couldn't care less about 'mid-winter easterlies' since they are usually crap unless you live in Kent/Essex. Northerlies are a good bet.

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Remember this, after winter 2009-10, December 2010 and March 2013?

Global warming ‘will make our winters colder’

• Steve Connor 


• @SteveAConnor 


• Monday 27 October 2014 00:00 GMT

Britain can expect twice as many severe winters as usual over the coming decades, according to a study supporting the counterintuitive idea that global warming could lead to colder weather in some parts of the world.

Climate scientists believe they have found evidence to suggest that the loss of floating Arctic sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas north of Scandinavia can affect the global circulation of air currents and lead to bitterly cold winds blowing for extended periods in winter over Central Asia and Europe, including the UK.

The research, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, supports several previous studies published over the past few years that also indicate a change in the winter climate over Eurasia as a result of the loss of Arctic sea ice. Arctic sea ice has declined significantly over the past three or four decades.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-will-make-our-winters-colder-9819825.html

So basically, those cold winters were just more proof of global warming, while the subsequent mild winters were, of course, also proof of global warming.

Or ... the theory I favour, which is, you never know what the weather's going to be like, and to believe that a sequence of just 30 or 40 years is enough to make you think you do is plain deluded.

It's as daft as thinking that Leicester City winning the Premier League over a sequence of just 38 games was proof that "something had changed".

 

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From the CPF:

 increases the probability of high-pressure patterns over Northern Eurasia.

 

 

Isn't this good news? ie. Northern Blocking??

 

As for Accu Weather - they got last years winter's forecast wrong for Europe - south and central and east was forecast to be warmer and drier when it was colder and snowier for over a month. Parts of the south and east of Europe were in a freezer for weeks if not a month in January. and the UK and Ireland accu Weather forecast to be stormy when it was drier than average. I quote directly from the winter weather forecast from AccuWeather last October 2016.

"Above-normal rainfall across the U.K. and Ireland will result in another winter of flooding problems," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.

I don't want to be horrible or slander Accu weather but this forecast for for Europe that they produced this time last year was totally wrong

Turned out it was one of the driest winters ever recorde.d in the UK. Not to mention boring and dull. Winter 2016/2017 certainly wasn't a 'Warm' winter for Turkey, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Albania, Serbia, Kosovo, Slovenia, Hungary, Italy etc. A reminder of this below.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38554357

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So moving on now...!?

 

Now the AccuWeather Europe winter forecast for 2017/18:

A bit of a deja vu here.. All they have done is changed 'STORMY' to 'Stormy' Early*.

At best if it is stormy early then perhaps there will be a change to a more blocked pattern in January. Unless they default this based on bartlett HP! - Otherwise it's pure guess work IMO.

 

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I couldn't care less about 'mid-winter easterlies' since they are usually crap unless you live in Kent/Essex. Northerlies are a good bet.

Pardon me for living in Kent. Unlike you guys, who can enjoy snow more easily from almost any direction, we down here need easterlies for decent cold. Hence I'll keep banging on about the lack of them - incidentally, the 21-year drought is the longest since at least 1900, I've not gone back beyond that.

Meanwhile, over here in Sapporo (where I'm on holiday, for one more day at least!) there's an example of what not being next to the warm old Atlantic can do. It was 15C yesterday, it'll be 15C tomorrow, yet today at noon it's going to be 2C with sleet - all caused by Typhoon Lan pulling down a genuinely cold northerly shot as it passes by. The effortless transition from autumn to winter and back again in a single day as a low passes by is something we just don't get back home in Kent - even in the depths of winter, northerlies usually get to 7 or 8C.

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TBH, the older I get, the less I care about the what may be in store weather wise during the winter months, as bitter experience tells me that despite much anticipation and a 'something will be different this year' attitude, colossal disappointed and dejection will nearly always be the form horse. The most I can hope for these days is the odd day with a lame storm or wet snow falling, while always feeling colder than it actually is.

I still look forward to winter (the child in me) but really only for the shorter daylight hours as not a fan of 20 hrs of daylight on a daily basis. 

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Pardon me for living in Kent. Unlike you guys, who can enjoy snow more easily from almost any direction, we down here need easterlies for decent cold. Hence I'll keep banging on about the lack of them - incidentally, the 21-year drought is the longest since at least 1900, I've not gone back beyond that.

Meanwhile, over here in Sapporo (where I'm on holiday, for one more day at least!) there's an example of what not being next to the warm old Atlantic can do. It was 15C yesterday, it'll be 15C tomorrow, yet today at noon it's going to be 2C with sleet - all caused by Typhoon Lan pulling down a genuinely cold northerly shot as it passes by. The effortless transition from autumn to winter and back again in a single day as a low passes by is something we just don't get back home in Kent - even in the depths of winter, northerlies usually get to 7 or 8C.

Sapporo is interesting. They get a load of snow - more than any other city of its size in the world - but winters are not particularly cold. Same is true for many Japanese cities - they receive way more snow than you'd expect given their comparatively mild winters. 

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